On Friday, Feb. 11, President Biden warned of an “immediate” threat that Russia would invade Ukraine and told Americans there to get out now.
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the two nations have had a contentious relationship. Ukrainian aspirations to join NATO led to Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing that such an affiliation would be a line that should not be crossed.
Putin has said that if NATO were to accept Ukraine, he would consider it a threat to Russian sovereignty due to the plans of other NATO members to establish military training centers in Ukraine.
Although Russia has established a large military presence along three sides of Ukraine, political science Professor Dr. Tom Cioppa said he believes there is a “real possibility” this can be resolved diplomatically. “It seems to me that Vladimir Putin might have miscalculated the response from America and Europe, especially some of the Eastern European countries like Poland,” Cioppa said.
Last week, the British government signaled to Russia the possibility of freezing Russian assets in London, and elsewhere in the United Kingdom. This is a concern for the Russian president and his confidants in Russia due to the fact they have large investments in both the London Stock Exchange, as well as the London real estate market.
Biden has sent troops to Eastern European countries such as Poland and Romania, which are a part of the NATO alliance. However, the U.S. has not sent troops directly to Ukraine. On troop deployments Cioppa said, “It is also a show of force reminding Putin that the NATO alliance will not willingly turn a blind eye to Russia’s massive military buildup on the Ukrainian border and in neighboring Belarus.”
U.S. officials estimate there are about 130,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s borders under the guise of military exercises. These exercises make almost a complete encirclement of the Russia-Ukraine border with hostile forces. In an interview with Lester Holt of NBC, Biden said “military action may commence at any time and without warning.”
Any attempt to avoid international conflict would be in vain, as it has already begun. Whether it be the rising global energy prices, the movement of Russian troops, or the natural gas pipeline in the Baltic sea, connecting Russia and Germany. Putin uses “power politics,” Cioppa said.
“When he (Putin) sees signs of weakness from the West, he takes advantage as best he can,” Cioppa said. If Russia does occupy Ukraine, either through military force, or diplomacy, it could serve as a stage for Putin to cement his legacy and reassert Russian influence in Europe.
In an attempt to not play into the “power politics” of Russia, when Russia presented the United States with a list of demands, all were denied. Some of these demands were stopping further NATO expansion eastward and denying membership to Ukraine.
“Being that the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is very fluid/changing constantly, it is hard to provide concrete answers,” Cioppa said of the situation.