The final Elite Eight game of the weekend between Duke & UConn produced an all-time classic. UConn, after being down as many as 19 points in the first half, came all the way back to win it in the final seconds on a miracle three-pointer by Braylon Mullins. UConn is now slated to play Illinois in the Final Four. The other Final Four matchup is between two powerhouses; Arizona & Michigan. Who will advance to the National Championship? Let’s find out.
(3) Illinois vs. (2) UConn
Throughout the whole season, Illinois has had the best offense in the country. They have a 131.8 adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, which ranks as the highest among all Division I teams. But ever since the NCAA tournament began, it has been their defense that has led the way. They have held their opponents to an average of 59.8 points per game through 4 games this tournament. This recent revelation on the defensive end, combined with having the best offense left in the tournament, makes this team dangerous.
UConn is coming off maybe the best comeback in NCAA tournament history, with their 19-point comeback win over Duke in the Elite Eight. The best player in this tournament for the Huskies has been senior center Taris Reed Jr. Reed Jr. has been a dominant force, scoring 21.8 points per game and averaging 13.5 rebounds. The Huskies are also led by 2-time national championship-winning head coach Dan Hurley, who is widely considered the best coach in the sport.
I think the combination of Illinois’ elite offense with their newly found great defense will prove to be too much for UConn to handle. This should be a close game though, and UConn’s championship pedigree is a very impactful factor in this Final Four showdown. I will take the Fighting Illinois to win a one-possession game. Illinois 72, UConn 70.
(1) Michigan vs. (1) Arizona
The Michigan Wolverines have run through opponents thus far in the NCAA tournament. They have an average margin of victory of 22.5 points through the first four games of the tournament. This has been the theme for Michigan all season long, as they are tied for second in the nation with a +18.1 point differential per game. The Wolverines have three players in their starting lineup who are 6’9 or taller; Aday Mara (7’3), Yaxel Lendeborg (6’9), and Morez Johnson Jr. (6’9). Michigan is second in college basketball in blocks per game, with 6.1.
Coming into his fifth season leading the Wildcats, head coach Tommy Lloyd had never made it past the Sweet 16. Well, this season not only has he made it past the Sweet 16, he has Arizona in the Final Four, and this is his most loaded team yet. Like Michigan, Arizona is a physically imposing team. Arizona does most of their damage from inside the three-point line; they score 49.2 points per game from 2-pointers, the second-highest mark in the country.
Both of these teams are eerily similar; they both are physically dominant and rely more on interior scoring than getting their points from the three-point line. This game, like the Illinois vs. UConn game, should be tight to the finish. I will go with the Arizona Wildcats to reach their first national championship since 2001. I trust their ability to score from the perimeter more than Michigan, and I think that will make the difference. Arizona 79, Michigan 76.
